Assessing unconventional natural gas development: understanding risks in the context of the EU

Unconventional natural gas development (UNGD, e.g. shale gas) poses a threat to the environment and human health. While the Member States of the European Union (EU) decide whether to develop this resource, they require evidence to assess the associated risks. Much of the evidence regarding the risks (e.g. contamination, exposure, disturbance) comes from the US, and we argue this evidence cannot be used by the Member States to conduct risk assessments due to demographic differences, geological differences, and differences in regulation. The EU, as a whole, has recognized their need for evidence and has funded research partnerships to explore the environmental effects of UNGD. We argue that such research efforts need to be extended further in order to address the gaps in human health studies and to develop comprehensive environmental baseline studies

UK Foot and Mouth disease: a systemic risk assessment of existing controls

This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted ‘features, events, and processes’ (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system

Working towards an integrated land contamination management framework for Nigeria

Over the past five decades, Nigeria has developed a number of contaminated land legislations to address the damage caused primarily by oil and gas exploitation activities. Within these legislations exists elements of risk assessment and risk-based corrective action. Despite this progress, we argue that contaminated land management approaches in Nigeria need further development to be able to integrate new scientific information, and to address environmental, economic, and social values. By comparison, advanced contaminated land regimes in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America (USA) apply a number of integrative approaches (e.g. sustainability appraisal, liability regime, funding mechanisms, technology demonstration) that enable them to meet the environmental, economic, and social needs of their populations. In comparison, Nigerian governance lacks many of these mechanisms and management of contaminated land is ad hoc. In this paper we propose an integrated risk assessment framework for Nigeria that incorporates the principles of sustainability and stakeholder engagement into the decision-making processes for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management. The integrated approach relies on transparency to promote acceptance and build trust in institutions, and uses stakeholder engagement to address data deficiencies. We conclude this paper with a roadmap for how Nigeria might implement such an integrative approach into their existing contaminated land regulatory system, as well as identify a series of policy priorities that should be addressed

Use of stakeholder engagement to support policy transfer: A case of contaminated land management in Nigeria

Transfer of environmental policy from one country to another without consideration for the contextual differences (e.g. socio-cultural, economic) between the countries can be a barrier that prevents adoption, or limits the implementation and effectiveness of that policy. In this study, we investigate the socio-cultural preferences of stakeholders in the Niger Delta to understand how different stakeholder groups value socio-cultural differences. We used a modified, mixed-methods stakeholder engagement approach to capture this information, combining stakeholder workshops and interviews. Community groups, regulators, experts in contaminated land management, and oil exploration operators participated in this study, and our results revealed a general consensus concerning the ranked priority of issues. Top issues included water quality, soil quality for agriculture, food production, and human health and wellbeing. Despite this consensus, differences in how stakeholder groups arrived at their rankings might pose a challenge for policy makers. Other potential barriers to effective policy transfer identified in this study include political and cultural differences, regulatory structure, and corruption. In sum, this study provides insights about the socio-cultural preferences of stakeholders from the Niger Delta; information that could be used by policy makers to contextualise contaminated land management policy transfer

Management of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites in Nigeria: Current challenges and future direction

Sites affected by petroleum hydrocarbons from oil exploitation activities have been identified as a major environmental and socio-economic problem in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The current Nigerian regulatory instruments to manage these contaminated sites are fragmented and the roles and responsibilities of government agencies, such as the Department for Petroleum Resources (DPR), and the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), are not well defined. This lack of coordination has led to ineffective land contamination policy and poor enforcement more generally. Appropriate, risk-based policy instruments are needed to improve regulatory capacity, and to enhance the regulator's ability to manage new and existing petroleum hydrocarbons contaminated sites. Lessons can be learned from countries like the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States America (USA) that have experience with the management and clean up of historically contaminated land. In this paper, we review the status of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites management in Nigeria and identify the gaps in existing policy and regulation. We review the contaminated land policies and regulation from the UK and the USA, and identify lessons that could be transferred to the Nigerian system. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations (e.g. source – pathway-receptor approach, soil screening criteria, clean-up funding, liability) that could enhance contaminated land legislation in Nigeria

Energy in Africa: Policy, Management and Sustainability

African nations are experiencing rapid economic growth and development, particularly within the energy sector; however, this growth has come at a cost to the environment and society. Nowhere have these impacts been felt more precisely than in the oil and gas producing regions of Nigeria where years of neglect and mismanagement have resulted in vast areas of hydrocarbon contaminated lands. In this chapter, we present a case study of the Niger Delta. We show how constructive stakeholder engagement can be used to integrate the values and perspectives of affected communities and how this information can be used to inform environmental regulation and sustainable development. Lessons learned are relevant to other countries seeking to develop their energy resources in a sustainable manner

Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks-heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm

We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below

Prediction of bioavailability and toxicity of complex chemical mixtures through machine learning models

Empirical data from a 6-month mesocosms experiment were used to assess the ability and performance of two machine learning (ML) models, including artificial neural network (NN) and random forest (RF), to predict temporal bioavailability changes of complex chemical mixtures in contaminated soils amended with compost or biochar. From the predicted bioavailability data, toxicity response for relevant ecological receptors was then forecasted to establish environmental risk implications and determine acceptable end-point remediation. The dataset corresponds to replicate samples collected over 180 days and analysed for total and bioavailable petroleum hydrocarbons and heavy metals/metalloids content. Further to this, a range of biological indicators including bacteria count, soil respiration, microbial community fingerprint, seeds germination, earthworm's lethality, and bioluminescent bacteria were evaluated to inform the environmental risk assessment. Parameters such as soil type, amendment (biochar and compost), initial concentration of individual compounds, and incubation time were used as inputs of the ML models. The relative importance of the input variables was also analysed to better understand the drivers of temporal changes in bioavailability and toxicity. It showed that toxicity changes can be driven by multiple factors (combined effects), which may not be accounted for in classical linear regression analysis (correlation). The use of ML models could improve our understanding of rate-limiting processes affecting the freely available fraction (bioavailable) of contaminants in soil, therefore contributing to mitigate potential risks and to inform appropriate response and recovery methods

Selective-exhaust gas recirculation for CO2 capture using membrane technology

Membranes can potentially offer low-cost CO2 capture from post-combustion flue gas. However, the low partial pressure of CO2 in flue gases can inhibit their effectiveness unless methods are employed to increase their partial pressure. Selective-Exhaust Gas Recirculation (S-EGR) has recently received considerable attention. In this study, the performance of a dense polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) membrane for the separation of CO2/N2 binary model mixtures for S-EGR application was investigated using a bench-scale experimental rig. Measurements at different pressures, at different feeding concentrations and with nitrogen as sweep gas revealed an average carbon dioxide permeability of 2943 ± 4.1%RSD Barrer. The bench-scale membrane module showed high potential to separate binary mixtures of N2 and CO2 containing 5–20% CO2. The permeability was slightly affected by feed pressures ranging from 1 to 2.4 bar. Furthermore, the separation selectivity for a CO2/N2 mixture of 10%/90% (by volume) reached a maximum of 10.55 at 1.8 bar. Based on the results from the bench-scale experiments, a pilot-scale PDMS membrane module was tested for the first time using a real flue gas mixture taken from the combustion of natural gas. Results from the pilot-scale experiments confirmed the potential of the PDMS membrane system to be used in an S-EGR configuration for capture of CO2

Design, process simulation and construction of a 100 kW pilot-scale CO2 membrane rig: Improving in situ CO2 capture using selective exhaust gas recirculation (S-EGR)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) from natural gas-fired systems is an emerging field and many of the concepts and underlying scientific principles are still being developed. Preliminary studies suggest this approach can boost the CO2 content in the feed gas up to 3 times compared to the ‘no recycle’ case (CO2 concentration increased to 18% vs. 6%), with a consequent reduction in flow to the post-combustion capture unit by a factor of three compared to conventional, non-S-EGR. For this project, Cranfield University developed a pilot-scale 100 kW CO2 membrane rig facility in order to investigate simultaneously EGR and S-EGR technologies, the latter being achieved by using a CO2 sweep air polymeric membrane. A bench-scale membrane rig has also been developed to investigate the permeability and selectivity of different polymeric membranes to CO2. Currently a small-scale polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) membrane module is also being investigated to study its selectivity/permeability. The tests include exploring the performance improvement of the PDMS membrane using different operating conditions with a view to developing scale-up procedures for the membrane unit for the actual 100 kW pilot-scale rig. Process simulations were performed using Aspen Plus software to predict the behaviour of the pilot-scale rig using a model developed based on empirical parameters (i.e., mass transfer coefficient of CO2 through the membrane and permeance), measured in the bench-scale membrane test unit. The results show that CO2 concentrations of up to 14.9% (comparable to CO2 level in coal combustion) can be achieved with 60% EGR, with a 90% CO2 removal efficiency of the membrane units. However, the results generated with the membrane model in which specific permeance values to PDMS were applied, predicted concentrations of CO2 in flue gases up to 9.8% (v/v) for a selective recycle of 60%. The study shows that the S-EGR technique is an effective method that can provide similar conditions to that of a coal-fired power plant for the post-combustion capture system operating on natural gas-fired units, but also highlights the fact that more research is required to find more suitable materials for membranes that optimise the CO2 removal efficiencies from the flue gas